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Assessing the Sensitivity of Watershed Stream Water Quality to Changes in Water Quantity Caused by Climate Change
Author            :William G. Booty, Ph.D.
Designation    :Research Scientist
Company        :National Water Research Institute
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Synopsis
This research represents a pilot project that is being carried out to establish a methodology for assessing the sensitivity of watershed stream water quality to changes in water quantity caused by climate change. The pilot watershed is the Duffins Creek watershed, which is located in the east of Toronto. Scenarios of climate change analyzed in this project were drawn from two internationally recognized climate models: the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) CGCM1 and the Hadley Centre HadCM2. The impacts of the climate change scenarios were examined by multiplying the baseline storm event precipitation values by the maximum and minimum monthly values generated by each of the two climate change models. The precipitation scenario values were used in the AGNPS non-point source model to generate stream flow and water chemistry data for the climate change conditions. The results illustrate why a deterministic watershed model that combines the complex interactions of processes, such as the AGNPS model, is required to understand the behaviour of watersheds to stressors rather than relying on simple, non-interconnected functions.

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